Grounding

Group 1 — Population Historians

Your Research Question

How many enslaved people lived in each state, in each year from 1619 to 1865 — and how did that number change over time?

Your number is the denominator for everything.

Every other group's Fermi chain runs through your population table. Group 2 multiplies population × kWh/person/day. Group 3 uses population to calculate resistance rates. Group 4 uses population to estimate total deaths. Group 5 uses all of it. If your numbers are wrong, all four other chains are wrong. Accuracy and documentation are your primary responsibilities.

Your Fermi chain

Step 1

Collect US Census data for enslaved populations, 1790–1860

Already loaded in your table — verify each number against the source: 'Negro Population 1790–1915,' US Census Bureau, 1918

Step 2

Research colonial-era estimates for each state, pre-1790

No census existed before 1790. Historians have reconstructed estimates — this is your primary research task

Step 3

Interpolate population for non-census years (5-year periods)

Group 5 handles the interpolation math — your job is the anchor points

Step 4

Document the interstate slave trade as a factor in state-level shifts

After 1808 (ban on transatlantic trade), forced domestic migration drove population from Upper South to Deep South. This explains why VA declines while AL/MS spike.

Output

Hand your population table to Group 5

They multiply: your population × Group 2's kWh/person/day × 365 = productive kWh per state-year

What you need to research

Colonial-era enslaved population estimates for VA, MD, NC, SC, GA — the five major colonies before 1776
What drove the population numbers after 1808 — the domestic slave trade, internal migration, "Negro traders" moving people south
Why Maryland and Delaware trend downward after 1810 while Mississippi and Alabama grow explosively
Pre-statehood data for territories that later became slave states (AL, MS, LA entered the Union 1817–1819)

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